Mandal vs Kamandal 2.0
Prelude
to Mahabharat 2024
The November five state assembly polls are Semifinals before the Final 2024
A slugfest between the BJP and Congress in the Hindi heartland
Ajit Kumar Jha
Elections in India are a festival for the millions of masses, a loud, rambunctious, rollicking fun for the eager voters, and a temporary equaliser in public life in an otherwise very hierarchical society. Exuberant voters, while choosing representatives love to boot out venal, incompetent incumbents who make a slew of empty promises but fail to deliver basic governance. As a result, the fall of incumbent governments in India is one of the highest compared to other developed democracies. The November state assembly elections in the five states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram are scheduled in November but the competitive campaign by political players has generated more heat than light.
The 2023 contest will help decide the fortunes and fates of some of the heavyweights at the state level. Ironically, it is the Congress party in this election who have openly declared their CM candidates, while the BJP, is underplaying their CM candidates, preferring to highlight Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his other Union cabinet colleagues, quite a few of them who are in the race.
In MP, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, the longest-serving chief minister of the state (the BJP has ruled for almost 18.5 years since 2003). “Mamaji” for young women who initiated the popular Ladli Laxmi Yojana Chauhan is pitted against Congress's Kamal Nath (CM for 15 months), the big business tycoon of Chindwara for the Chief Minister’s post. In Rajasthan, political veteran and three-term (though not in a row) chief minister Ashok Gehlot, who has initiated a slew of welfare measures is trying to break the jinx of the incumbent always losing in the desert state for almost three decades. In Chhattisgarh, the popular OBC, one-term Congress chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, is hoping to win comfortably for a second term.
Four of the assembly poll-bound states account for a significantly large bloc of 82 Lok Sabha seats out of 545: Madhya Pradesh (29), Rajasthan (25), Chhattisgarh (11) and Telangana (17). Tiny Mizoram has only one seat in the Lok Sabha.
BJP
vs Congress in the Hindi heartland
The three Hindi heartland states contribute 65 seats, which is almost one-third of the 186 Lok Sabha seats witness direct polar contests between the two national-level parties: The BJP and the Congress. Two of them (Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh) are being ruled by the Congress and MP by the BJP (although Congress had formed the government in Bhopal in 2018 with a slim majority). Therefore, a clear-cut victory by either of the two is bound to set the narrative for the Lok Sabha polls in 2024.
The BJP, the ruling party at the Centre since 2014 with overwhelming victories in the 2014 and 2019 general elections, is on a blitzkrieg Presidential style campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, attempting to thwart any advantage to the Congress. The G-20 presidency, the passing of the Women’s Reservation Bill, the success of the Chandrayan (Moon mission), and the recent tweaks in the MSP for farmers are being projected as successful milestones in governance. The Congress, highlighting the BJP’s failures in controlling inflation, rising unemployment and corruption by corporate groups (especially the Adani family), is desperately playing for a double whammy in these state assembly polls. For one, a victory against the mighty BJP will be seen as the proverbial David defeating Goliath and thus creating a new narrative of hope for a change of power in 2024 in Delhi. Additionally, if Congress manages to win all three of the Hindi heartland states, it will increase the Grand Old Party’s bargaining power inside the 18-party INDI Alliance for the Lok Sabha seat allocation for 2024.
Is there an underlying message in these impending polls? Can the November state assembly elections in the five states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram be accurately described as the semi-finals held a few months before the scheduled final poll, the Lok Sabha elections of 2024? Are these assembly polls a trendsetter? The answer is both “Yes” and “No.”
YES, because the outcome of the state assembly elections is bound to affect the political mood of the nation before the Lok Sabha polls. It is likely to influence the trend of voting, the political momentum of the country and the nature of the campaign for the 2024 general elections. If the Congress-led Opposition fares well in the state assembly polls like in 2018, it might create an alternative narrative for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls: a revival for the Congress, a bounce for the INDI Alliance and a serious challenge for the national incumbent, the BJP-led NDA government in New Delhi. Alternatively, a BJP-led NDA sweep in the three Hindi heartland states, as in 2013, will strengthen the slogan “Modi hai, to Mumkin Hai,” (If it is Modi, Anything is Possible).
How is 2023 different from 2018?
What is different today compared to 2018, in the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh? First, Congress is going to polls in these three states (two of which it is in power) with a gust of wind in its sails. Following the two victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka assembly polls, and with the election of 80-year-old Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, the Congress Party seems to be in a perky mood of revival if not total regeneration. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra from Kanya Kumari to Kashmir also contributed to this revival by creating a new avatar for Congress’s Yuvraj. The mainstream media which ignored Rahul Gandhi before the Bharat Jodo Yatra was forced to pay attention to his new found confidence, an increased degree of political maturity, especially after the two consecutive state assembly victories in Himachal and Karnataka.
Second, the formation of the INDI Alliance, a rainbow coalition of 18 political parties, with three successful meetings in Patna, Bengaluru and Mumbai has created some hope that the Opposition parties are in a relatively better position to challenge the monopoly of the BJP-led NDA compared to 2014 and 2019. What has provided ammunition in the weaponry of the INDI Alliance is the new attempt to revive the Mandal movement.
Brief
History of Mandal vs Kamandal
A brief history of the epic battle between Mandal and Kamandal will help illustrate the ideological clash better. Historically, the first Mandal moment originated in Bihar, in 1978, when the then Bihar Chief Minister Karpoori Thakur, introduced caste-based reservation for the backward classes in government jobs. The Mandal moment surfaced nationally when former Prime Minister Vishwanath Pratap Singh's government declared its intent to implement the Mandal Commission report in August 1990. The Sangh Parivar's ideological response to V P Singh's Mandal formula was launching the Ayodhya movement under the leadership of Lal Krishna Advani, thus attempting to unite the Hindus under one umbrella. Bahujan Samaj Party leader, Kanshi Ram had turned this Mandal formula into an effective slogan. Jiski Jitni Sankhya Bhaari, uski utni Hissedari (Your rights should be proportional to your population numbers).
The caste-based Mandal formula in India, introduced in the late 1980s, marked a significant turning point in Indian politics and served as a counterforce to the rising tide of Hindutva politics. Stylistically, the Mandal formula's impact can be analyzed through its political ramifications, social dynamics, and ideological implications.
Politically, the Mandal formula challenged the dominance of Hindutva politics by mobilizing marginalized communities and reshaping the power dynamics within the Indian political landscape. The formula, which aimed to provide reservations in government jobs and educational institutions for Other Backward Classes (OBCs), addressed historical social injustices and gave a voice to those who had long been marginalized. This shift in political representation disrupted the hegemonic narrative propagated by Hindutva politics, which sought to consolidate power along religious lines. The Mandal formula, therefore, posed a formidable challenge to the Hindutva agenda by redirecting the focus towards social justice, diversity and inclusivity.
The social dynamics resulting from the Mandal formula were equally significant. The implementation of reservations for OBCs sparked intense debates and ignited a sense of empowerment among historically oppressed communities. The formula provided opportunities for upward mobility and social integration, challenging the hierarchical structures perpetuated by the traditional caste system. Socially, it created a sense of solidarity among OBC communities, fostering a collective identity (Picchra, backwards) that transcended religious and caste boundaries. For example, the Pasmanda Muslims began to identify with the EBCs. By promoting inclusivity and empowering marginalized groups, the Mandal formula countered the divisive rhetoric of Hindutva politics, which sought to exploit religious fault lines for political gain.
Ideologically, the Mandal formula challenged the core values of Hindutva politics by emphasizing social justice and equality. Hindutva ideology is rooted in the notion of a homogenous Hindu nation, where the interests of the majority are prioritized over minority rights. In contrast, the Mandal formula acknowledged the diversity within the Hindu community itself, recognizing the historical disadvantages faced by certain groups. It rejected the homogenizing tendencies of Hindutva politics and underscored the importance of inclusivity and representation for a truly democratic society. This ideological clash between the Mandal formula's emphasis on social justice and Hindutva politics exclusionary agenda further underscored the formula's significance in countering the rise of Hindutva.
In conclusion, the caste-based Mandal agenda in India played a crucial role in fighting Hindutva politics by challenging its dominance politically, reshaping social dynamics, and undermining its ideological foundations. Through its focus on social justice, inclusivity, and representation, the Mandal agenda mobilized marginalized communities, disrupted the hegemonic narrative of Hindutva politics, and fostered a sense of empowerment and collective identity among historically oppressed groups. In short, the Mandal formula's impact can be seen through the political, social, and ideological shifts it engendered, carving out a space for a more inclusive and egalitarian vision of Indian society.
A
Prelude to Mahabharat 2024
The results of the Bihar caste survey seem to have created a political buzz among the Extremely Backward Castes, Other Backward Castes (including backward minority groups like the Pasmanda Muslims) and the Scheduled Castes, the semi-finals might end up becoming the pilot test for the finals in 2004. If this round of the elections goes in favour of the Opposition parties, now organised in the INDI Alliance, the semi-finals could turn out to be the heats before the finals in 2024, thus ensuring a direct fight between the BJP-led NDA versus INDI Alliance, in most of the Lok Sabha seats for 2024.
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